Two outstanding draft classes- Quality vs Quantity

After a quick back and forth about the 2003 and 2005 drafts with my cousin, and Anze Kopitar enthusiast, I decided to compare the two drafts which are loaded with talent.

The 2003 draft boasts a ton of talent:

1st Round:

The Stars and high end support players:
Eric Staal
M-A Fleury
Ryan Suter
Zach Parise
Ryan Getzlaf
Cory Perry
Jeff Carter
Mike Richards
Dustin Brown
Ryan Kesler
Brent Seabrooke
Tomas Vanek
Dion Phaneuf
Nathan Horton
Brent Burns
Brayden Coburn
Milan Michalek
Andrei Kostitsyn

The Role Players
Steve Bernier
Eric Fehr
Robert Nilsson
Mark Stuart
M-A Pouliot
Anthony Stewart
Brian Boyle
Jeff Tambellini
Patrick Eaves


The absolute Busts:
Shawn Belle, only 20 NHL games to his name.
Hugh Jessiman, only 2 games played in the show.

*Not listed is Nikolai Zherdev. He was taken in this draft, and I almost wanna list him as a bust, although talent-wise that wouldn't be accurate. He could've been in the Kostitsyn/Michalek range if he didn't go back to Russia. He was a 3 time 20+ goal scorer in 4 NHL seasons.

Now let's take a look at the first round of the 2005 draft, which is also ridiculous. However, being a couple years younger, you should use discretion with certain players who may be late bloomers.

1st Round:

The Stars and high end support players:
Sidney Crosby
Anze Kopitar
Bobby Ryan
Jack Johnson
T.J. Oshie
Carey Price
Tuuka Rask
Marc Staal
Devin Setogucchi
Andrew Cogliano
Martin Hanzal
Matt Niskanen
Steve Downie

The Role Players:
Benoit Pouliot
Gilbert Brule (The Blue Jackets always seem to get it wrong)
Jack Skille (could be a late bloomer, could move into "high end support player" role)
Brian Lee
Ryan Parent
Jakub Kindl
Niclas Bergfors
Matt Lashoff (between bust and role player)

The absolute Busts:
Marek Zagrapan
Sasha Pokulok
Ryan O'Marra (could become a role player)
Kendal McArdle (ditto)
Alex Bourret
Matt Pelech
Joe Finley
Vladimir Michalek

Not listed is Luc Bourdon, RIP.

Okay, so its pretty clear that the 2003 draft had a way better first round. Crosby and Kopitar aside, the first round of the 2005 draft was pretty below average, overall. However, its the supposed depth of the 2005 draft that's so impressive. So I'm going to keep digging. I'm not going to list busts for the 2nd round on.

2003 2nd Round:

Stars/high end support:
Shea Weber
Louie Eriksson
Patrice Bergeron
David Backes
Matt Carle
Jimmy Howard

Notable Role players:
Kevin Klein
Cory Crawford
BJ Crombeen
Patrick O'Sullivan
Maxim Lapierre

Not bad, with 4 legit stars, a quality d-man and a legit starting goalie, along with a handful of useful role players.

2005 2nd Round:

Stars/high end support:
James Neal
Paul Stastny
Ondrej Pavelec
M-A Vlasic

Notable Role players:
Justin Abdelkader
Mason Raymond
Guillaume Latendresse
Adam McQuiad
*Matt Kassian (only 28 career games so far, but looks like a bit of a late bloomer)

Okay, so the 2nd round in '05 is solid, but doesn't quite stack up against the '03 class. Which is looking more and more obvious as the best draft class of a generation. Let's take a look at rounds 3-7

2003 later rounds

Stars/high end support:
Joe Pavelski (*7th round)
Kyle Quincey
Lee Stempniak ("high end support" is maybe a stretch?)
Clarke MacArthur


Notable Role players:
Dan Carcillo
Drew Miller
Ryan O'Byrne
Nate Thompson
Alexandre Picard
Zach Stortini
Kyle Brodziak
Jan Hejda
Nathan Paetsch
Johnny Mitchell
Brad Richardson
Mark Methot
Bruno Gervais
Paul Bissonette
Jay Rosehill

Decent draft from the 3rd round on, but the only player resembling a star in there is Joe Pavelski. The super stars drafted in the first couple rounds of this draft are undeniable, but let's see if the '05 draft can make it up in the later rounds:

2005 later rounds:

Stars/high end support:
Kris Letang
Jonathan Quick
Keith Yandle
Niclas Hjalmersson
Sergei Kostitsyn
Patric Hornqvist (*last pick of the draft! )



Notable Role players:
Darren Helm
Nathan Gerbe
Kris Russell
Cody Franson
M-A Gragnani
Anton Stralman
TJ Hensick
Mark Fayne
Matt D'Agostini
Jarred Boll
Kyle Cumiskey
Vladimir Sobotka
Oscar Bartulis
Tom Pyatt
Tim Kennedy
Colin Greening
Chris Butler
Tom Wandell
*Ben Bishop (potential to be a good goalie)

Well, not a lot to suggest that the '05 draft is in any way better than the '03 draft, except that it has produced a few more NHL'ers. The '05 players would all be about 24-25 years old right now, so there is still a chance that a few of the "notable role players" could make the leap in to the "high end" category, where as we have a better handle on the '03 players who are all 26-27.

Either way, my conclusion is that the '03 draft class is the draft of the generation, although the '05 depth is fairly impressive.

Top Available Goalies This Offseason

UFA's

Potential Starter's

Tomas Vokoun, 36: 25-17-2/ 2.51/ .917

Vokoun is a stud. Puts up good numbers every year. I think, depending on what happens in the playoffs the Capitals may or may not get a deal done to re-sign him. If he hits free agency he'll most likely be the most established goalie available with Nabokov having re-signed on the Island.

Josh Harding, 28: 13-12-4/ 2.62/ .917

Harding is a guy who has played well since he's entered the league but has never had a shot at being a starter playing behind Backstrom in Minnesota. He could be approaching his prime and as a UFA for the first time he will be looking for a situation where he can go and be a starting goalie.

Johan Hedberg, 39: 17-7-2/ 2.22/ .918

The old man can still stop the puck. Winning three quarters of his starts, he quietly put up amazing numbers in New Jersey. This guy has had a losing record just once since the lockout (14-15-3 in '08 with Atlanta). I See "Moose" as being a quality back up, capable of playing upwards of 30 games and winning 15-20 of them. Could be a great bargain too. Underrated goalie.

Martin Brodeur, 40: 30-21-4/ 2.41/ .907

Doubt Marty would leave NJ at this point in his career. I would imagine he'll stay in NJ where he's been a God for the last 20 years, or retire. But for every Yzerman, Sakic, and Jeter, there is a Favre, Modano, and Bourque who do change teams. Long shot, but had to include him.

Martin Biron, 34: 12-6-2/ 2.46/ 9.04

Biron hasn't been a starter in 3 years (29-19-5 with Philly in '09) but has always been a very good goalie and could potentially be a 1A/tandem goalie in the right situation. He always seems to play well and post solid numbers in goal.

Al Montoya, 27: 9-10-5/ 2.96/ 8.97

Not great numbers. Typically my rule is your GAA should be below 3.00, and SV% above .900 to be considered respectable. Montoya was hovering around both those numbers so he was pretty average stats wise, but keeping in mind he was playing on one of the worst teams in the Islanders. Montoya was a big time prospect 8 years ago (drafted 6th overall in the '04 draft) and has shown flashes of why. A lot of goalies don't come into their own until they are in their late 20's and I wouldn't be surprised to see Montoya find a good situation where he can succeed and become a legitimate starter. Or he might just be a back up, it could really go either way with this guy.

A few notable back ups

Chris Mason, 36: 8-7-1/ 2.59/ .898

Decent back up numbers for the Jets. He was pretty much a .500 goalie with average numbers and average play across the board. Could have a bit left in the tank in a back up role.

Dwayne Roloson, 42: 12-16-3/ 3.68/ .886

These are bad numbers, even for a back up. The veteran, who turns 43 at the start of next season will almost definitely retire. But he did look okay for stretches this year and could sign a cheap deal as a back up. Rolly never puts up spectacular numbers in the regular season but routinely goes deep in the playoffs (conference final last year, Cup final in '06, conference final in '03). His clutch play could make him an interesting option for a team looking for depth in goal, and he's a goalie who is used to playing in a tandem role. (As I write this Elliot Friedman reports that Rolly kept the game puck after tonights Tampa game and will most likely retire. Great career, if not for his fluke injury late in game 6 of the 2006 Cup final he would have his name on the Cup. Bad break, but great goalie, and great career.)

Marty Turco, 37: 2-2-0/ 3.68/ .855

These numbers are just terrible. Marty has actually been a .500 goalie for a while now (11-11-3 in '11, 22-20-11 in '10, 33-31-10 in '09). You have to go back to '08 to find him as a legit, winning starter (32-21-6). He used to be one of the best and he may retire, but I think he could be a good pick up as a veteran back up, especially for a team with a young goalie who could use a good team guy. Turco is a character and would bring a ton of experience to the bench. Just a side note, his performance against Vancouver in the 2007 playoffs has to be the greatest goaltending performance in a losing effort in NHL history. He had 3 shutouts in that series, carrying Dallas on his back, a GAA of 1.30 and a SV% of .952. Dallas lost this series...are you kidding me!

Other goalies like Clemmensen, Auld, Gustavsson, etc. Are UFA's too.

*For anyone thinking "none of these guys are any good except for (so and so)" just remember, many questioned if Theodore could return to form and be a starter again after a few mediocre seasons but he's played really well for Florida. Goaltending is a tricky position to predict sometimes. Another under the radar signing was Mike Smith in Phoenix, look how that turned out.

Available via trade

A few names being rumoured include:

Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota - Another bad season for the Wild, the rumours were out there at the deadline. I could see them shopping Backstrom's $6 million salary for some help up front and then re-signing Harding.

Tim Thomas, Boston - Entering the final year of his contract and coming off a slight decline this season, I could see Boston maximizing the value on Thomas and moving him either in the offseason or sometime throughout the season and handing the reigns over to Tuuka Rask. Thomas has won a Conn Smythe and 2 of the last 3 Vezina Trophy's. Even though he's getting up there I think the market would be fairly big for Timmy.

Miikka Kiprusoff, Calgary - Another year of missing the playoffs and the rumblings have started that Calgary could finally start their rebuild. Moving 34 Kipper is an obvious option. Ron MacLean even suggested that this summer Calgary could shop Iginla and give him a chance to play for a true contender. If these rumours are true a young package of picks and prospects could land Kiprusoff who is still one of the NHL's best goalies, posting ridiculous stats on a bad team this season (35-22-11, 2.35, .921).

Jaroslav Halak/Brian Elliot, St.Louis - Here's a team with two good goalies, both with a couple years left on their deals going into next year. I think the results of these playoffs could determine which stays and which goes. Slight edge to stay would go to Halak right now because he played more games. Halak's numbers were stellar this year, but Elliot's were actually even better. I think Hitchcock's defensive system is flattering to goalies but still you have to give credit to the guys stopping the puck. Elliot's cap hit is $1.8 million for the next two seasons, a little less than half of what Halak makes which could make Halak the trade bait.

Cory Schneider, Vancouver - The kid has put up outrageous numbers (20-8-1, 1.96, .937 this year, 16-4-2, 2.23, .929 last year). I know the wins are going to be inflated playing in Vancouver but you can't argue that the kid has proven over the last two seasons that he can play. He's primed to have an opportunity to be a starter somewhere. If Gillis can have some faith in Luongo he could move Schneider for a very nice return.

Steve Mason, Columbus - A fresh start in Columbus for next year and Mason coming off a terrible season, the rumours are that they tried to move him leading up to the deadline but nothing happened. He's 23 and was brilliant a couple seasons ago. He carries a $2.9 million cap hit which is affordable for a team looking to roll the dice on a kid who could use a change of scenery.

Nikolai Khabibulin, Edmonton - One year left on his contract with the Oilers, they said the asking price was too high for 'Bulin at the deadline, but keep in mind that was a sellers market and the asking price will likely drop this summer. At the start of this year Khabibulin played outstanding hockey but with the brutal... I mean re-building Oilers in front of him, he burnt out quickly.

Sergei Bobrovsky, Philadelphia - For a while this season Bob has actually been better than Bryz in Philly and he's playing the best hockey of his career. Since Bryz is locked up to the big contract Bob could be available. We all know Paul Holmgrem loves to wheel and deal so we'll see if this guy moves this summer.

Jonathan Bernier, LA - Everyones favourite unproven goalie. There's a ton of hype around this kid, and he is almost certainly available for the right price with Quick playing so well in LA. He's definitely a good prospect but time will tell if he can be a starter in the NHL. He's 19-14-5 career over the past 3 seasons, which suggests that he has earned a shot at being a starter somewhere.

Anders Lindback, Nashville - Even less proven than Bernier, but has shown flashes of being pretty good. I doubt he moves but Nashville will have some decisions to face this summer and Lindback could be a trading chip to address needs at other positions. Lindback is closer to a Bishop (acquired from St.Louis by Ottawa) in a sense that we really don't know what he could be capable of, but there is a belief out there that he could be a starting goalie at some point in the next couple of seasons.

So that's it. If anyone knows of any good rumours of anyone I may have missed I'd love to hear it.

35 interesting UFA's for July 1st, 2012

Just looking ahead to one of the best day's of the year for any hockey fan, here are 35 player's scheduled to UFA on July 1st (some of these guys will re-sign with their current club, some may retire)

SCORING FORWARDS (12) -

1. Zach Parise, 27 - likely to re-sign, but there is a belief that he could hit the market

2. Alex Semin, 27 - I actually think he won't stay in Washington, they need some big changes

3. Shane Doan, 35 - Probably staying with the 'Yotes, but some uncertainty there

4. Teemu Selanne, 41 - Could retire or stay in Anaheim, but when it comes to Teemu, who knows?

5. Jaromir Jagr, 40 - The man can flat out still play. Could stay in Philly, retire, or test the market

6. P.A. Parenteau, 28 - 50+ pts last year, and close to pt per game this year, could cash in

7. Olli Jokinen, 33 - honestly, would be surprised to see the rejuvenated sniper leave Calgary

8. Jason Arnott, 37 - Veteran is more of a 2nd/3rd line C now, but 15 G so far this year, decent

9. Ray Whitney, 39 - Vet has not slowed down. A bit under a pt per game again, every year

10. Brad Boyes, 29 - his last 20+ G season was in '09 (33 goals). Could be a gamble signing

11. Petr Sykora, 35 - Comeback player of the year candidate likely sticking in NJ

12. Steve Sullivan, 37 - The man can still fly out there, would be a solid addition anywhere

ROLE PLAYING FORWARDS (12) -

1. Paul Gaustad, 30 - Big 6'5" frame, he's the ideal 4th line centre

2. Dustin Penner, 29 - Brutal year aside, he still has good hockey left in him

3. Jordin Tootoo, 29 - Having a career year, could be a cap/salary casualty in Nashville

4. Brandon Prust, 27 - Posts tons of PIMS, had a career high in pts with 29 in 2011

5. Jamie Langenbrunner, 36 - former playoff hero has slowed down, but still a great leader

6. Shaun Thornton, 34 - one of the toughest grinders in the league.

7. Jarret Stoll, 29 - Having an off year, typically good for 45 pts. Reliable 3rd line C, and tough

8. Taylor Pyatt, 30 - Big 6'4" 230 lbs, gritty, veteran winger

9. Darcy Hordichuk, 31 - Tons of energy. Great agitator as a 4th line centre

10. Travis Moen, 29 - Big grinder does a lot of the little things well

11. Dan Carcillo, 27 - Major league agitator, prone to bad penalties

12. Zenon Konopka, 31 - Big 4th line centre, drops the gloves, hits, limited minutes

DEFENSE (8) *could've done way more, lots of role players out there

1. Ryan Suter, 27 - Could test the market, would be a huge prize for any team

2. Brad Stuart, 32 - Excellent steady D-man, although the Wings have some cap room to re-sign

3. Matt Carle, 27 - Matt "Hot" Carle is a quality puck mover and will get attention

4. Dennis Wideman, 28 - Quality hockey player has bounced around. Likely seeking longer term

5. Hal Gill, 36 - PK specialist and 5 on 3 king pin. Solid veteran.

6. Pavel Kubina, 34 - Slow, but still has the big shot and plays with a physical edge

7. Scott Hannan, 33 - one of the many vets scheduled to be available

8. Colin White, 34 - see Hannan. And there are more like this so I'm stopping here

GOALIES (3)

1. Evgeny Nabakov, 36 - Isles trying hard to sign him. His #'s have been good this season

2. Tomas Vokoun, 35 - Having a bad year, but wouldn't be too quick to call him washed up

3. Martin Biron, 34 - Best back up out there for my money. I think he could be a 1A in a lot of towns

And that wraps it up, 35 UFA's for July 1st. Although expect half these guys not to make it to free agency, as per recent NHL trends. Oh I left of Grabovski because this was originally a Leaf wish list, then it morphed into something else.